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Why Bitcoin’s drop below $40K is flashing mixed signals for traders

January 23, 2024
in Bitcoin
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Why Bitcoin’s drop below $40K is flashing mixed signals for traders
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  • Bitcoin dropped below the critical $40,000-level
  • Despite bearish trends, the market maintains a balanced mix of long and short positions

In a surprising twist of events, Bitcoin (BTC) has seen its value plunge below $40,000. This marked a significant downturn from its recent high of approximately $49,000 on 11 January 2024. 

While the $40,000-mark is considered a crucial psychological level for Bitcoin, experts believe that a breach of this level may not necessarily trigger a widespread sell-off. In fact, the next support level is projected to be around $38,000​.

READ ALSO

Bitcoin nears $91K as buying pressure soars, but challenges emerge

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Rising market uncertainty

Greek.live took to X (formerly Twitter) to highlight the hike in market uncertainty and expectations of price variability. 

Bitcoin fell below the $40,000 as short-term IVs recovered. Overall VRP(volatility risk premium) has risen, and the Skew curve is skewed towards put options.
The above option data reflects the existence of a certain number of short-term panic orders in the market, the market… pic.twitter.com/D5wnuhSWz2

— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) January 23, 2024

A rising VRP suggests that the options market expects future volatility to be higher than what recent historical data indicates. This can be seen as a sign of uncertainty or risk aversion among investors.

This skewness indicates that traders are more concerned about potential downside risks. Short-term orders might be driven by fear of further declines, prompting traders to take quick, protective actions.

Reasons behind Bitcoin’s downfall

The cryptocurrency market is seeing a general trend of weakness across all digital assets following a significant surge last year. In fact, Bitcoin’s value soared by approximately around 160% in 2023. 

See also  Crypto week ahead: Is $70K next for BTC? Fed rates, US elections tell you...

This upward trend was largely driven by expectations that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would approve the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). 

However, following the SEC’s approval, the markets began to retract some of these gains. This was influenced by a trend of selling in response to the news, which has not been sufficient to counterbalance the profit-taking actions by speculative traders.

BTC’s current market scenario

At press time, BTC was exchanging hands at $39,108. This marks the first time the cryptocurrency has fallen to this price point since early December. 


is bitcoin a good investment

Source: TradingView

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) registered a reading of 34.18, indicating a potential undervalued status in the market. Concurrently, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) measured at -0.02, suggesting a slightly negative market sentiment.

Looking at the longer timeframe (weekly chart), the RSI presented a more bullish outlook at 58.29, although it has been on a declining trend. Meanwhile, the CMF stood at 0.16, indicating a moderately positive inflow of money into the market.

Tags: 40kBitcoinsDropFlashingmixedSignalstraders

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