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Home Bitcoin

Is Bitcoin headed for a shake-up? THIS group holds the answer

August 19, 2024
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Is Bitcoin headed for a shake-up? THIS group holds the answer
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  • BTC’s long-term MVRV was below 6% at press time.
  • BTC might see capitulation or accumulation soon, based on the reaction of holders.

Despite Bitcoin’s [BTC] relatively stable price in recent months, key on-chain metrics suggested underlying challenges that could impact the market.

One concerning indicator is the Long Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH-NUPL).

Additionally, the long-term Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has remained below zero for the past several weeks. 

Declining Bitcoin profitability

An analysis of the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH-NUPL) on Glassnode revealed that long-term Bitcoin holders were experiencing a significant decline in profitability at press time.

This trend could be a critical indicator of the market’s future direction.

Around March 2024, Bitcoin’s price and the LTH-NUPL peaked, signaling that many long-term holders were sitting on substantial unrealized profits.

However, following this peak, both the price and LTH-NUPL began to decline, suggesting that the market may have seen considerable profit-taking. 

Bitcoin NUPL for Long term holders

Source: Glassnode

From June to August 2024, the LTH-NUPL continued to decline, closely mirroring BTC’s downward price trend.

As of August 2024, the LTH-NUPL is positioned on the lower end of the spectrum, indicating that many long-term holders’ profits have significantly diminished. 

What this could mean for Bitcoin

This situation could suggest that the market is approaching a critical juncture. It could be nearing a point of capitulation, where holders may start selling off their holdings to avoid further losses.

Also, it could be approaching a potential bottom, where new accumulation could occur as investors seek buying opportunities.

The LTH-NUPL specifically measures the unrealized profit or loss of long-term Bitcoin holders.

See also  'East vs West:' How Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF can cover U.S. losses, per execs

A high NUPL value indicates that the majority of the coins held by this group are in profit, potentially leading to profit-taking and a market correction.

Conversely, a low or negative NUPL value implies that more coins are held at a loss, which could lead to capitulation or present a buying opportunity for investors.

LTH’s profits sinks

AMBCrypto’s analysis of Bitcoin’s 90-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) revealed that long-term holders were holding at a loss at the time of writing.

The trend reinforces the findings from the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH-NUPL) analysis. 

Also, the 90-day MVRV has been below zero since 1st August, and as of this writing, it stood at approximately -6.6%.

This indicated that investors who bought Bitcoin during this period were holding an average loss of over 6%.

Bitcoin MVRV

Source: Santiment


Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25


The persistent negative MVRV suggests that long-term holders were experiencing financial pressure, which could influence their decision-making in the near term.

This trend is crucial because how these holders react—whether by selling off their holdings to minimize losses or by holding on in anticipation of a market recovery—will significantly impact Bitcoin’s price direction.

Previous: Will China unban crypto? Tron founder Justin Sun sparks rumors
Next: Nigeria proposes new crypto regulation bill amidst rising adoption

READ ALSO

Bitcoin nears $91K as buying pressure soars, but challenges emerge

Spot Bitcoin ETF Options – How U.S exposure is set to soar after CFTC’s notice

  • BTC’s long-term MVRV was below 6% at press time.
  • BTC might see capitulation or accumulation soon, based on the reaction of holders.

Despite Bitcoin’s [BTC] relatively stable price in recent months, key on-chain metrics suggested underlying challenges that could impact the market.

See also  Looking into why Bitcoin did not respond to June's CPI report

One concerning indicator is the Long Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH-NUPL).

Additionally, the long-term Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has remained below zero for the past several weeks. 

Declining Bitcoin profitability

An analysis of the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH-NUPL) on Glassnode revealed that long-term Bitcoin holders were experiencing a significant decline in profitability at press time.

This trend could be a critical indicator of the market’s future direction.

Around March 2024, Bitcoin’s price and the LTH-NUPL peaked, signaling that many long-term holders were sitting on substantial unrealized profits.

However, following this peak, both the price and LTH-NUPL began to decline, suggesting that the market may have seen considerable profit-taking. 

Bitcoin NUPL for Long term holders

Source: Glassnode

From June to August 2024, the LTH-NUPL continued to decline, closely mirroring BTC’s downward price trend.

As of August 2024, the LTH-NUPL is positioned on the lower end of the spectrum, indicating that many long-term holders’ profits have significantly diminished. 

What this could mean for Bitcoin

This situation could suggest that the market is approaching a critical juncture. It could be nearing a point of capitulation, where holders may start selling off their holdings to avoid further losses.

Also, it could be approaching a potential bottom, where new accumulation could occur as investors seek buying opportunities.

The LTH-NUPL specifically measures the unrealized profit or loss of long-term Bitcoin holders.

A high NUPL value indicates that the majority of the coins held by this group are in profit, potentially leading to profit-taking and a market correction.

Conversely, a low or negative NUPL value implies that more coins are held at a loss, which could lead to capitulation or present a buying opportunity for investors.

See also  Bitcoin open interest takes a dive as ETH, SOL traders hold strong - What now?

LTH’s profits sinks

AMBCrypto’s analysis of Bitcoin’s 90-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) revealed that long-term holders were holding at a loss at the time of writing.

The trend reinforces the findings from the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH-NUPL) analysis. 

Also, the 90-day MVRV has been below zero since 1st August, and as of this writing, it stood at approximately -6.6%.

This indicated that investors who bought Bitcoin during this period were holding an average loss of over 6%.

Bitcoin MVRV

Source: Santiment


Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25


The persistent negative MVRV suggests that long-term holders were experiencing financial pressure, which could influence their decision-making in the near term.

This trend is crucial because how these holders react—whether by selling off their holdings to minimize losses or by holding on in anticipation of a market recovery—will significantly impact Bitcoin’s price direction.

Previous: Will China unban crypto? Tron founder Justin Sun sparks rumors
Next: Nigeria proposes new crypto regulation bill amidst rising adoption
Tags: answerBitcoinGroupheadedHoldsshakeup

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