Ethereum to $4K? Spot ETF approvals have analysts thinking…

• Market enthusiasm around ETH ETFs might not be as strong as most expected, according to analysts
• Other market observers believe ETH could cross $4K after ETF launch

Doubts about market demand for U.S spot Ethereum [ETH] ETFs have been compounding, even as analysts maintain a possible launch by early July.  In fact, there’s been a debate about whether ETH ETFs can attract demand on a scale similar to that of spot Bitcoin [BTC] ETFs too. 

For perspective, according to Farside Investors’ data, BTC-related products have now hit +$14 billion in net flows and over $50 billion in assets under management (AUM) since their debut in January. 

However, most analysts believe that ETH ETFs could meet only a fraction of the aforementioned demand. For instance – Quinn Thompson, Founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, recently reinforced the overall market’s lukewarm outlook.  

“The market is fading the positive impact of the upcoming ETH ETF way too hard.”

Mixed views on ETH ETFs

JPMorgan analysts are part of the bearish camp too. They recently projected that ETH ETFs could attract about $1 billion to $3 billion in net inflows in the second half of 2024. 

Another bearish figure was shared by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, who projected that the products could capture only 20% of the BTC ETF market share. His projection was based on the current demand for ETH vs BTC on the Futures market. 

On the contrary, other analysts, like K33 Research’s Vetle Lunde, estimated that demand for ETH ETF products could hit $4 billion in net inflows in the first five months alone.

For example, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan is in the bullish camp and views the second half of 2024 as full of ‘tailwinds’ for ETH demand. 

A recent Deribit Insights report also painted a bullish future based on recent Options data. It noted, 

“Decent clip of ETH Sep 4k Calls bought ($12m premium), and BTC Jun 65k+July75k Calls rolled to increased exposure in Dec 75+90k Calls, showing increased mid-term optimism.”

QCP Capital analysts reiterated the said optimism based on Options data, reiterating that ETH could surge above $4K and retest its record high of $4.8K. 

“Despite uncertainty around the reception of the ETH ETF, capturing 10-20% of Bitcoin ETF flows could propel ETH above 4,000, nearing its peak of 4,800.”