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    IOT in E-Commerce Market Is Going to Boom | Major Giants Amazon,Alibaba,eBay

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    The #1 CopyTrading Exchange-Bitget Turns 5, $100 Bonus for Newcomers

    The #1 CopyTrading Exchange-Bitget Turns 5, $100 Bonus for Newcomers

  • Coin Marketcaps
  • Home
  • Crypto
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    IOT in E-Commerce Market Is Going to Boom | Major Giants Amazon,Alibaba,eBay

    IOT in E-Commerce Market Is Going to Boom | Major Giants Amazon,Alibaba,eBay

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    Enhancing Security in Online Gambling with Blockchain Technology

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    Blushush by Sahil Gandhi and Ohh My Brand by Bhavik Sarkhedi Partner to Revolutionize Brand Strategy and Personal Branding

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    How to Play Treeverse: Beginner’s Guide to Gameplay, NFTs, and Tokenomics

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    The most potentially profitable investment method in 2025 is through PairMiner crypto cloud mining, earning passive income daily.

    The most potentially profitable investment method in 2025 is through PairMiner crypto cloud mining, earning passive income daily.

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    Experience to Earn: Everdome’s Metaverse Frontier

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    Beyond Bots: Meta Motivo and the Dawn of Humanlike Digital Life

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    Cloudflare Accuses Perplexity AI of Using Stealth Crawlers to Evade Website Blocks

    CryptoPunks and Pudgy Penguins Draw Major Sales

    CryptoPunks and Pudgy Penguins Draw Major Sales

    NFT Sales Spike in July—but Still Miles Below 2024’s Highs

    NFT Sales Spike in July—but Still Miles Below 2024’s Highs

    Ethereum Collections Lead NFT Sales Today

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    how NFTs became a global brand and a Web3 “social currency”

    how NFTs became a global brand and a Web3 “social currency”

    Pixel Vault Removes CEO Following Self-Dealing and Rug Pull Accusations

    Pixel Vault Removes CEO Following Self-Dealing and Rug Pull Accusations

    Labubus have succeeded in every way that NFTs have failed

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    Shrapnel to Leave Avalanche in New Partnership with Gala Games

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    Google to Pit Top AI Models Against Each Other in Live Chess Tournament

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    Ethereum NFT Sales Surge 56% in July 2025 as Alt-Chains Lose Market Share

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    TaskOn Joins EPHYRA to Elevate AI-Powered Gaming Experience

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  • Blockchain
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    MetaMask Users Can Now Link Binance and OKX Accounts to Their Portfolio Dashboard

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    NetMindAI Partners with Neurochain AI to Revolutionize Decentralized AI Services

    LFG Boosts Token Launches with Community Power

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    Polyhedra Network launches Proof Cloud in open beta

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    It’s a Different Sort of Olympics as Cryptographers Face Off in Polyhedra’s ‘Proof Arena’

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  • AI
    Bitcoin Miner Bit Digital Diversifies Into AI for ‘Substantially Higher Margin’ Than Mining

    Bitcoin Miner Bit Digital Diversifies Into AI for ‘Substantially Higher Margin’ Than Mining

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    How decentralization can mitigate ‘dystopic’ artificial intelligence risks: SingularityNET exec

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    UAE emirate launches new free zone for digital assets, Web3 and AI

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  • Guides
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    What Is Crypto Arbitrage and How to Use It in Trading?

    What’s the Difference & Which Is Better to Trade?

    What’s the Difference & Which Is Better to Trade?

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    What are Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAO)? The Pros, Cons, and Real-World Examples

    What Is Copy Trading in Crypto? A Beginner’s Guide

    What Is Copy Trading in Crypto? A Beginner’s Guide

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    Crypto Risk Management Strategies for Trading (2025)

    Crypto Risk Management Strategies for Trading (2025)

  • Analysis
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    Bitcoin Sees Historic Rise in Shark and Whale BTC Wallets, Records New High: Santiment

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    Solana, XRP and One Ethereum Rival Leading Institutional Inflows in 2023: CoinShares Data

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    Estate of Bankrupt Crypto Exchange FTX Abruptly Stakes Over $144 Million in Solana (SOL)

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    SEC Chair Gary Gensler Standing in the Way of Bitcoin ETFs, Says ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood

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    Top Trader Sees Bitcoin Skyrocketing 570% in Next Bull Market Amid Soaring US Debt Levels

    Top Trader Sees Bitcoin Skyrocketing 570% in Next Bull Market Amid Soaring US Debt Levels

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    The #1 CopyTrading Exchange-Bitget Turns 5, $100 Bonus for Newcomers

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Home Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s 2019 trading pattern repeats itself: Good news for BTC?

September 5, 2024
in Bitcoin
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Bitcoin ETF outflows cross $288M amidst Labor Day’s ‘risk-off mode’
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Journalist

Posted: September 5, 2024

  • Bitcoin’s 2019 behavior repeats itself, thanks to its investors. 
  • Analysts divided on a post-halving rally in 2024 and the likely price trigger. 

It’s five months after the halving event, and Bitcoin [BTC]‘s historical parabolic rally remains elusive.

However, according to CryptoQuant, the halving rally might still be in play, especially as current short-term BTC investors mirrored 2019 behavior. 

According to the data, BTC rallied 490 days after new investors peaked around the 2019 halving event, and a similar pattern was playing out. 

“Currently, we can observe a small peak in UTXOs under six months, which resembles a similar structure seen in 2019 (red circle).”

Bitcoin 2019

Source: CryptoQuant

Mixed views on post-halving BTC rally

For context, UTXO (unspent transaction output) offers insights about BTC holders and, by extension, their behavior based on age bands. The above data tracked those who held BTC for less than six months (new users). 

However, the UTXO declined after BTC peaked in March, which the data attributed to new investors’ likely exit due to losses.

Nevertheless, per the analysis report, BTC might only see a massive rally if the number of new BTC investors increases. 

“Historically, the influx of capital from new investors has been a critical condition for Bitcoin’s price increases.”

Both 2019 and 2024 were BTC halving years. However, the historical price rally happened in 2020 after the halving event. Will history repeat?

Some, like renowned analyst Peter Brandt, claimed that BTC might not hit a new all-time high after stagnating for too long compared to previous cycles. 

See also  Bitcoin, ETFs, and BlackRock: Michael Saylor gives his insights

However, Outlier Ventures’ Jasper De Maere cautioned that BTC and digital assets have matured and that the halving event was inconsequential to price in 2024. 

“It’s time for founders and investors trying to time the market to focus on more significant macroeconomic drivers rather than relying on the four-year cycle.”

On his part, James Straten believed that the recent 34% drawdown to $49k was normal in the bull run and that the post-halving rally was still likely. 

That said, BTC network activity contracted further as active addresses hit a record low in 2024 and could further drag the price due to muted interest in the digital asset. 

“Active addresses on the #Bitcoin network hit new lows in 2024, reaching the same level as 3 years ago, when the price of BTC was quoted at around $45,000.”

Bitcoin 2019

Source: CryptoQuant

Whether the expected positive macro front amid a likely Fed rate cut will trigger the post-halving rally remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, BTC was valued at $56.7k at press time and has been below $60k since the beginning of September. 

Next: Kamala Harris-linked Super PAC opens its doors for crypto donations

READ ALSO

Bitcoin nears $91K as buying pressure soars, but challenges emerge

Spot Bitcoin ETF Options – How U.S exposure is set to soar after CFTC’s notice

Avatar

Journalist

Posted: September 5, 2024

  • Bitcoin’s 2019 behavior repeats itself, thanks to its investors. 
  • Analysts divided on a post-halving rally in 2024 and the likely price trigger. 

It’s five months after the halving event, and Bitcoin [BTC]‘s historical parabolic rally remains elusive.

See also  Is Bitcoin headed for a shake-up? THIS group holds the answer

However, according to CryptoQuant, the halving rally might still be in play, especially as current short-term BTC investors mirrored 2019 behavior. 

According to the data, BTC rallied 490 days after new investors peaked around the 2019 halving event, and a similar pattern was playing out. 

“Currently, we can observe a small peak in UTXOs under six months, which resembles a similar structure seen in 2019 (red circle).”

Bitcoin 2019

Source: CryptoQuant

Mixed views on post-halving BTC rally

For context, UTXO (unspent transaction output) offers insights about BTC holders and, by extension, their behavior based on age bands. The above data tracked those who held BTC for less than six months (new users). 

However, the UTXO declined after BTC peaked in March, which the data attributed to new investors’ likely exit due to losses.

Nevertheless, per the analysis report, BTC might only see a massive rally if the number of new BTC investors increases. 

“Historically, the influx of capital from new investors has been a critical condition for Bitcoin’s price increases.”

Both 2019 and 2024 were BTC halving years. However, the historical price rally happened in 2020 after the halving event. Will history repeat?

Some, like renowned analyst Peter Brandt, claimed that BTC might not hit a new all-time high after stagnating for too long compared to previous cycles. 

However, Outlier Ventures’ Jasper De Maere cautioned that BTC and digital assets have matured and that the halving event was inconsequential to price in 2024. 

“It’s time for founders and investors trying to time the market to focus on more significant macroeconomic drivers rather than relying on the four-year cycle.”

On his part, James Straten believed that the recent 34% drawdown to $49k was normal in the bull run and that the post-halving rally was still likely. 

See also  How CZ's departure from Binance fueled a FTT rally

That said, BTC network activity contracted further as active addresses hit a record low in 2024 and could further drag the price due to muted interest in the digital asset. 

“Active addresses on the #Bitcoin network hit new lows in 2024, reaching the same level as 3 years ago, when the price of BTC was quoted at around $45,000.”

Bitcoin 2019

Source: CryptoQuant

Whether the expected positive macro front amid a likely Fed rate cut will trigger the post-halving rally remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, BTC was valued at $56.7k at press time and has been below $60k since the beginning of September. 

Next: Kamala Harris-linked Super PAC opens its doors for crypto donations
Tags: BitcoinsBTCgoodnewsPatternRepeatsTrading

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