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Bitcoin MVRV ratio at a crucial retest: Do bulls still have a chance?

September 26, 2024
in Bitcoin
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Journalist

Posted: September 26, 2024

  • BTC STH MVRV retested a key resistance level and could trigger a rally if it breaks the hurdle. 
  • However, the recent uptrend momentum weakened at the $65K resistance on price charts. 

On-chain data suggested that Bitcoin [BTC] was retesting a crucial price resistance that, if broken, could set the asset up for a massive price rally. 

According to on-chain analyst Checkmate, the short-term holder’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio was retesting the 155-day moving average (MA).

Historically, a move above the MA triggered a ‘decent rally,’ per the analyst. 

Bitcoin MVRV

Source: Checkonchain

What’s next for BTC?

For context, the MVRV ratio is a valuation metric to gauge whether BTC is overpriced or undervalued. MVRV values above 1 signal that most holders have unrealized profit. 

On the contrary, below 1 indicates that short-term investors are holding, on average, at a loss. This always happens during price consolidation and signals that BTC is undervalued. 

Apart from the BTC valuation, the STH MVRV is a support and resistance level when tracked using the 155-day MA. At press time, the metric’s value edged towards 1 and was on the verge of crossing the 155-day MA. 

The chart notes that the recent instances when STH MVRH moved above the 155-day MA were in Q1 2024 and Q4 2023. In both periods, BTC rallied massively, tipping the short-term investors to profits.

As such, a trend repeat could set BTC for a likely run. If bulls clear the resistance and surge, BTC could eye $66K and $70K, highlighted Checkmate. 

“If the bulls get their way, and we set a weekly higher high ~$65.3k, I’d reasonably expect an attempt to the ATH.”

Bitcoin MVRV

Source: Checkonchain

The on-chain analyst added, 

“Short-Term Holders will be in a statistically large amount of profit between $66.1k and $70.8k, so I will be watching their profit-taking behaviour on the way.” 

However, on price charts, the lower timeframe showed muted momentum and a key hurdle at $65K, as illustrated by trader Skew.

See also  Bitcoin Takes The Lead As Crypto Funds See Third Straight Week Of Inflows

The trader highlighted stalled RSI and weak flows as the reasons BTC could struggle to clear $65k in the short term. If so, the trader projected BTC could ease to $61K. 

Bitcoin MVRV

Source: Skew/X

Next: Pepe’s rally not over: Targets 2024 highs after triangle breakout

READ ALSO

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Avatar

Journalist

Posted: September 26, 2024

  • BTC STH MVRV retested a key resistance level and could trigger a rally if it breaks the hurdle. 
  • However, the recent uptrend momentum weakened at the $65K resistance on price charts. 

On-chain data suggested that Bitcoin [BTC] was retesting a crucial price resistance that, if broken, could set the asset up for a massive price rally. 

According to on-chain analyst Checkmate, the short-term holder’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio was retesting the 155-day moving average (MA).

Historically, a move above the MA triggered a ‘decent rally,’ per the analyst. 

Bitcoin MVRV

Source: Checkonchain

What’s next for BTC?

For context, the MVRV ratio is a valuation metric to gauge whether BTC is overpriced or undervalued. MVRV values above 1 signal that most holders have unrealized profit. 

On the contrary, below 1 indicates that short-term investors are holding, on average, at a loss. This always happens during price consolidation and signals that BTC is undervalued. 

Apart from the BTC valuation, the STH MVRV is a support and resistance level when tracked using the 155-day MA. At press time, the metric’s value edged towards 1 and was on the verge of crossing the 155-day MA. 

See also  Bitcoin vs Gold: Will BTC beat precious metals in 2025?

The chart notes that the recent instances when STH MVRH moved above the 155-day MA were in Q1 2024 and Q4 2023. In both periods, BTC rallied massively, tipping the short-term investors to profits.

As such, a trend repeat could set BTC for a likely run. If bulls clear the resistance and surge, BTC could eye $66K and $70K, highlighted Checkmate. 

“If the bulls get their way, and we set a weekly higher high ~$65.3k, I’d reasonably expect an attempt to the ATH.”

Bitcoin MVRV

Source: Checkonchain

The on-chain analyst added, 

“Short-Term Holders will be in a statistically large amount of profit between $66.1k and $70.8k, so I will be watching their profit-taking behaviour on the way.” 

However, on price charts, the lower timeframe showed muted momentum and a key hurdle at $65K, as illustrated by trader Skew.

The trader highlighted stalled RSI and weak flows as the reasons BTC could struggle to clear $65k in the short term. If so, the trader projected BTC could ease to $61K. 

Bitcoin MVRV

Source: Skew/X

Next: Pepe’s rally not over: Targets 2024 highs after triangle breakout
Tags: BitcoinBullschanceCrucialMVRVratioretest

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