Bitcoin Mining Costs Soar as Miners Expect Long-Term Price Boosts

The Bitcoin mining industry has been under considerable pressure this year, marked by declining revenues, reduced hash prices, and soaring production costs. Despite these challenges, miners have continued to expand infrastructure, predicting a favorable Bitcoin ($BTC) price trajectory in the long term.

CoinShares’ Q3 2024 report shows that mining expansion has raised both difficulty and production costs. The average cash cost per Bitcoin ($BTC) rose to $49,500 in Q2, up from $47,200 in Q1. When incorporating other expenses like depreciation and stock-based compensation, this estimate increases to around $96,100, signaling that mining profitability increasingly relies on favorable Bitcoin ($BTC) prices.

Rising Production Costs and Shrinking Margins Challenge Bitcoin Miners

The industry has also struggled with limited access to credit, which worsened post-FTX collapse and amid rising interest rates. This has pushed miners toward alternative funding sources like share issuance, often frustrating investors due to shareholder dilution.

The volatility in miner share prices, largely tied to Bitcoin’s performance, has not been sufficient to capture the gains associated with the recent U.S. Bitcoin ETF launches, further complicating financial stability in the sector.

Miners have turned to increasingly advanced models to predict hashrate and hash prices, which helps project profitability under varying conditions. For example, a piecewise exponential model, accounting for energy control like stranded gas, suggests that while hashrate growth will continue, it will eventually decelerate due to physical and energy limitations.

By year-end, the total network hashrate could approach 765 EH/s, with a theoretical limit reached by 2050 under sustainable energy strategies. Hash prices, an indicator of profitability, are forecasted to stay between $32–$50 per PH/day until the next Bitcoin halving in 2028.

Capital Efficiency and Diversification

Many mining firms are diversifying into AI and other areas to supplement revenue, given that fee revenue alone is unlikely to sustain mining profitability at current levels. For miners to achieve returns comparable to direct Bitcoin ($BTC) investment, fees must rise to about 70% of daily issuance — an ambitious target given the historical average. This illustrates the industry’s push toward cost efficiency and revenue diversification as it grapples with shrinking margins.

Report reveals that capital efficiency remains a critical metric as the industry faces heightened scrutiny from investors wary of high operational costs and shareholder dilution. While some miners, like Cormint and TeraWulf, have managed to keep production costs lower through optimized energy strategies, others need help with high operational expenditures. As industry dynamics evolve, only miners who can effectively manage costs, secure, reliable energy sources, and strategically access capital will likely remain competitive in this challenging environment.