TL;DR
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BTC dropped from a yearly high of ~48k to ~43k, post ETF announcement, but the futures market is indicating positive movement in the coming months.
Full Story
So, Bitcoin ain’t doing too hot.
(It looks like the Bitcoin ETF approval was a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ event).
Since the announcement last Wednesday, Bitcoin dropped from a yearly high of ~48k, to ~43k.
…and this is getting investors excited.
Confused? Here’s what’s going on:
If you want to know where the market thinks Bitcoin prices are about to go next – look no further than the futures market.
Aka: the place where folks bet on the future price of Bitcoin.
Though the BTC price has taken a hit recently, the ‘long-short ratio‘ of the futures market is predicting positive price movement in the coming months.
…cool, what the hell does that mean?
Think of the ‘long-short ratio‘ as a ‘positive-negative expectation ratio.’ The higher the ratio, the more positive the market’s outlook is on Bitcoin’s price.
Before the Bitcoin ETF approval last week, the ratio was sitting at a low of 0.86.
But as of yesterday, that number hit 2.86! Indicating a sharp increase in the expectation of upward price movement for Bitcoin.
So why the sudden rosy outlook on Bitcoin?
Our guess is, it’s a combination of the Bitcoin sell-off, and slow accumulation of Bitcoin via ETFs.
The idea being:
The market thinks Bitcoin is just about done selling off, and from here, what’s needed to push the price back up is steady buying pressure.
Buying pressure that the market expects to see coming from the Bitcoin ETFs over the coming months.
Whether it all goes to plan is a whole other question…
But it’s a positive indication nonetheless!
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