Is Bitcoin on the cusp of a new uptrend?

• At its press time value, Bitcoin traded above its Warm Supply Realized Price.
• This is considered a bullish sign.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] price has rallied above its Warm Supply Realized Price, suggesting the start of a new uptrend, crypto analyst Ali Charts noted in a recent post on X (formerly Twitter).

#Bitcoin is now trading above its Warm Supply Realized Price at $28,150, which suggests the beginning of a new $BTC uptrend as long as this level holds! pic.twitter.com/HJSR6QVzNI

— Ali (@ali_charts) October 17, 2023

How much are 1,10,100 BTCs worth today?

BTC’s Warm Supply Realized Price metric tracks the average price at which the less active cohort of short-term (STH) BTC holders purchased their coins. 

When BTC’s price rallies above this metric, it is considered a bullish signal, as it suggests that buyers are now willing to pay more to acquire BTC than they have in the past 30 days. 

At press time, BTC exchanged hands at $28,713, while data from Glassnode put its Warm Supply Realized Price at 28,150. This meant that at its current value, the leading coin traded at a relatively higher price than the recent average price at which the coin had been obtained.

According to Ali, if BTC can hold above $28,150 in the coming days and weeks, it would further indicate that a new uptrend is underway.

However, if its price falls below this metric, it would show that sellers have begun to sell their coins below their cost basis, suggesting the return of bearish sentiments. 

How profitable have BTC investments been in the past few days?

According to data from Santiment, the ratio of BTC’s daily on-chain transaction volume in profit to loss observed on a seven-day moving average was 1.23 at press time. This meant that for every unit of BTC sold at a loss, there were 1.5 units sold at a profit. 

Source: Santiment

This is a bullish signal, suggesting that more traders are selling their holdings at a profit than a loss.

A further look at its spent output profit ratio (SOPR) showed that BTC’s STHs have seen more profits on their investments than those that have held for more extended periods. 

According to Glassnode academy, an asset’s SOPR measures the degree of profit and losses incurred by its holders over a given period of time. 

When an asset’s SOPR is higher than one within a particular period, this means that those that sold at the current price sold at a profit. Conversely, when an asset’s SOPR is less than one within a specified window period, those that sold within that time frame incurred losses.

At press time, the STH-SOPR was 1.01. Data tracked by CryptoQuant showed that this has climbed steadily in the past three days, suggesting all transactions made by investors that have held BTC for less than 155 days have returned a profit.

Source: CryptoQuant

Is your portfolio green? Check out the BTC Profit Calculator

On the other hand, the coin’s long-term holders (LTH) have not been as lucky. At press time, the coin’s LTH-SOPR trended downwards after breaching its zero line on 16 October.

At 0.96 as of this writing, transactions completed by this cohort of investors in the past two days have mostly resulted in losses. 

Source: CryptoQuant