This Is Pretty Much ‘Astrology for Finance Bros,’ but We’re Here for It.

TL;DR

• Crypto degens: “Bitcoin ’bull cross’ is about to hit”

• Earlier this week, an X user, Moustache, pointed out that right before the Bitcoin halving in 2016, the ‘EMA’ and ‘SMA’ lines overlapped. EMA’s and SMA’s are just fancy words for ‘average prices.’

• The last time this ‘bull cross’ happened, it marked the beginning of an 18-month run that saw Bitcoin 40x, going from ~$500, to ~$20,000.

Full Story

No one:

Absolutely no one:

Crypto degens: “Bitcoin ’bull cross’ is about to hit”

Us: “Sounds ominous. What does that even mean?”

To answer our own question, we did some digging…

Earlier this week, an X user, Moustache, pointed out that right before the Bitcoin halving in 2016, the ‘EMA’ and ‘SMA’ lines overlapped.

EMA’s and SMA’s are just fancy words for ‘average prices.’

And the key difference between the two is that the EMA focuses on short term price averages, while the SMA focuses on longer term averages.

Next thing you need to know is:

Technical chart analysis is kind of like ‘astrology, for finance bros,’ it looks at random factors and patterns, in an attempt to predict the future.

(Some traders will even invest based on moon phases and solar cycles!)

We say all of this to highlight:

The market will often put heavy emphasis on rarely occurring patterns.

…and a specific configuration of the EMA and SMA lines are about to positively cross for the first time since 2016.

The last time this ‘bull cross’ happened, it marked the beginning of an 18-month run that saw Bitcoin 40x, going from ~$500, to ~$20,000.

Now, it should be said:

Bitcoin is too big to pull those sort of gains anymore, and this ‘bull cross’ hasn’t even happened yet – in fact, it may not actually come to pass.

(And even it does, it’s not a guarantee of anything).

But boy is the suggestion of an 18-month bull run exciting!